Tennessee Volunteers vs Virginia Cavaliers Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 03/22/26

The #3 seed Virginia Cavaliers take on the #6 seed Tennessee Volunteers on Sunday in Philadelphia in the Midwest Region. The Vols smoked Miami (OH) on Friday to get here, while Virginia beat Wright State. This game projects to be the tightest matchup on the Sunday slate, and these teams profile almost identically. Whatever happens, it is nearly certain that it will be a close game where every basket, every possession, is hotly contested. The Vols open as the favorite, but I like the Cavaliers a bit better. I will take Virginia at +1.5, but I would play the Money Line outright, if we get to that point.

When I say these teams profile similarly, they are near mirror images in terms of metrics. KenPom ranks Tennessee 32 and 13 in offensive and defensive efficiency, and Virginia checks in at 27 and 16. Both teams play slow on offense. Both pressure the ball on defense. Both thrive on the offensive glass (both in the top 10 there). We are really splitting hairs to find any advantages here, but I will point to two possibilities for the Hoos. First, UVA excels at defending inside the arc, and Tennessee isn’t really a 3-pt shooting team. Second, I am still not convinced that Nate Ament is fully healthy for the Vols. He is out there gutting it out, but he doesn’t look comfortable. I think Virginia might escape with this game.

Tennessee vs Virginia Prediction: Virginia +1.5 (-115) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.