Texas Longhorns vs NC State Wolfpack Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 03/17/26

The Texas Longhorns will take on the NC State Wolfpack in a First Four matchup on Tuesday night. It’s somewhat surprising to see Texas in the NCAA Tournament after dropping 5 of its las 6 games, but that’s neither here nor there. NC State hasn’t fared much better, also losing 5 of its last 6 — so both teams enter this matchup looking to regain momentum. Both teams have plenty of talent, but only one will be moving on to take on the #6 seed BYU in the first round.  

For Texas, the key will be establishing a physical presence inside — crashing the boards and forcing NC State into tough, physical possessions. This Texas team is bigger, stronger and has a significant rebounding advantage heading into this matchup with Dailyn Swain (7.6 rpg) and Matas Vokietaitis (6.8 rpg). NC State will lean on Ven-Allen Lubin to anchor its rebounding effort, but Texas physicality inside should limit second-chance opportunities for the Wolfpack. Offensively, both teams were nearly identical — with Texas averaging 83.8 points per game and NC State close behind at 83.7. Defensively, the Longhorns struggled this season — allowing 76.8 ppg. However, the Wolfpack haven’t been much better — giving up 76.5. This game will likely come down to which team can dominate inside, and that’s where Texas has the clear advantage. With their ability to control the boards and shut down the driving lanes, the Longhorns should be able to take control of this matchup as the game goes on. Texas is also shooting 75.2% from the free-throw line, so if it establishes a physical presence in the paint, expect UT to get to the line and create separation late in the game. 

Texas vs NC State prediction: Texas -1 (-109) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.