College Basketball Best Bets Today: November 10 Predictions & Picks

Tuesdays are usually a big day during the college basketball season, and this one is no different. College hoops fans will have three ranked matchups to enjoy, including a top-five clash in Michigan State vs Duke. We will also see Illinois vs Texas Tech and Kansas vs Kentucky, as well as the #1 team in the country in the Florida Gators when they clash with another in-state, non-conference rival in the Florida State Seminoles. Ahead of a 50+ game slate, here are my college basketball best bets on Tuesday’s card. Make sure to check out our CBB predictions for picks and analysis on all the biggest games throughout the year.

College Basketball Best Bet: Florida State Seminoles +9.5 over Florida Gators (-110)

Odds widely available at time of publishing. Playable to +8.

I haven’t gone against the Gators much since their title run in 2024, but I’m willingly going against them on Tuesday, as I feel this edition of Florida State matches up well enough to keep this game within three possessions. Under Luke Loucks, Florida State has a ton of size this year. In fact, thanks to Sebastian Rancik, Cooper Schwieger and Marcis Ponder, the ‘Noles have three guys standing six-foot-10 or taller, directly combatting the typical size advantage Alex Condon and Rueben Chinyelu have in the post. It doesn’t stop there, though. They also have a six-foot-seven guard in Kam Taylor and a six-foot-eight forward in Shon Abaev to help neutralize Thomas Haugh, while Anthony Robinson can absolutely hold his own defensively against Boogie Fland and Denzel Aberdeen being that he played against them for the last three years in the SEC.

Florida State will run with anyone, and they’re crashing the boards with reckless abandon, sitting seventh nationally on both ends per KenPom. This team also gets to the line at a top-20 rate, connecting on close to 84% of their freebies, which has been an issue for this Florida team thus far. The Gators have connected on only 63% of their free throws, while they’re 215th in turnover rate through two games. On the other end, they haven’t turned their opponents over much, sitting 283rd in forced turnover rate. Considering FSU is top-40 in turnover rate, albeit against inferior competition, in addition to the rebounding prowess the ‘Noles have shown so far, I don’t see them giving Florida a ton of extra possessions. 

This is obviously a big step up in class for Florida State. The Gators have already played Miami, so they’ve been tested – the Seminoles have not. That said, even with minimal continuity, this is a fairly veteran Florida State roster at key possessions. If Robinson and Taylor limit turnovers, the ‘Noles could even have a chance to win this one. 

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CBB Best Bet: Vanderbilt Commodores vs Memphis Tigers Over 160 (-110)

Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to 161.5. 

Death, taxes and Penny Hardaway as an underdog. That’s the popular sentiment heading into this in-state Tennessee showdown, especially after the Tigers nearly upset the ‘Dores in Memphis last year. While I somewhat agree, I’m attacking it in a different way. 

If the Tigers want to be competitive in this game, they will need to score at a high clip, as the Commodores are going to be good for at least 80 more often than not this season. The Tigers don’t defend well, and they play fast – at least, until Nemanja Popovic joins the team after a six-game suspension. When he returns, the Tigers will likely play through him in the post, but without him, Hardaway will rely on his guards to carry the load, which helps us in terms of pace and shot volume. On the other side, Vanderbilt is near-elite defensively, but they don’t mind playing fast, either. With Tyler Tanner running the show, the Commodores can really play at whatever pace they want. Against Memphis, I’m expecting that to be fast.

When these teams met in Memphis last year, they shot a combined 10-of-51 from the three point line, but there were 66 total free throws and 26 offensive rebounds, as well as 40 combined turnovers – most of which led to quick shots at the other end. While Memphis is completely overhauled roster wise, the same principles apply under Hardaway. Through two games, this team is shooting much better from deep than it did at any point last year (45%). That will regress, but there are objectively more shooters on the roster this year than last. Additionally, the Tigers are sixth nationally in free throw rate and 318th nationally in free throw rate allowed, so there should be plenty of freebies at the charity stripe.

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CBB Best Bet: Kentucky Wildcats +5.5 over Kansas Jayhawks (-110)

Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable +3. 

The big news ahead of the blueblood showdown between Kansas and Kentucky is that senior Kanas guard Melvin Council Jr broke his foot in Monday’s practice and will be out a few weeks. Being without him won’t be a death blow to the Jayhawks, but it removes a very good perimeter defender and facilitator from the rotation and puts a lot of pressure on a back court otherwise comprised of freshmen and sophomores. It would be ideal if we saw a game from Kansas sans Council ahead of this matchup, but alas. 

Say what you want about Kentucky, but this roster is pretty exciting on paper. There’s plenty of firepower here, especially considering they now have arguably the best shooter in the country in Milan Momcilovic, in addition to Justin McBride next to him – who shot over 40% from deep at James Madison last year. Kentucky’s back court is inexperienced at the power conference level, which is less of a concern now that Council is out, but their front court is massive. In fact, KenPom lists Kentucky as the tallest team in the country; they have three true seven-footers at their disposal. From the spread ability of Momcilovic and McBride to the size and shot-deterrance of the seven-footers, I suspect it’s going to be hard for Tyran Stokes and Trey Kaufman-Renn on both ends of the floor, as well as on the glass.

The Jayhawks have made fewer than 54% of their free throws to this point, which sits 345th nationally, and they won’t have a career 77% free-throw shooter in Council to aid that tonight. It’s tough to win, much less cover as a favorite, when free throws are anything but a certainty. Kentucky doesn’t get to the line much because they shoot so many jumpers, but this team has connected on 80% of their free throws – big advantage for Big Blue Nation. I think Kentucky is live here, give me the fighting Mark Popes on a neutral court in Chicago to close out my Tuesday best bets.

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