College Basketball Picks

The Central Michigan Chippewas will travel to Madison on Monday to play a non-conference game against the Wisconsin Badgers. Wisconsin needs a bounce-back win in this one after losing its past 2 games. The Badgers got blown out by Nebraska and lost to Villanova in overtime, but Central Michigan should be a much easier opponent. The Chippewas are just 4-8 on the season, and 2 of those wins came against non-Division I opponents. They are ranked just #324 at KenPom and will likely struggle to keep it close inside the Kohl Center. Wisconsin to cover the spread is my best bet.

The Badgers should be playing with a great sense of urgency following their last two games. They are the better team both offensively and defensively that we should see displayed on Monday night. According to KenPom, Central Michigan’s defense is ranked just #343 nationally in adjusted efficiency and they should struggle to stop Wisconsin’s offense. Central Michigan has suffered double-digit loses this year to Bradley, Northern Kentucky, Marquette, Loyola-Chicago, Saint Louis and Stony Brook. I believe the Badgers are better than all those teams mentioned, so they should be able to cruise to an easy victory.

Central Michigan vs Wisconsin prediction: Wisconsin -30.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -32.

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Illinois looks vulnerable on the surface, and that’s exactly what we want. Nine days ago the Illini were double-digit favorites against an undefeated Nebraska team and lost on a buzzer-beater. That result is fresh in the market’s mind, and bettors are understandably hesitant to lay points again — especially in a neutral-site rivalry game against a Missouri team that enters 10–2. That hesitation is precisely what creates value.

This is the bragging-rights game, but despite the rivalry branding, the matchup itself leans toward Illinois. The oddsmakers are clearly daring the market to take the points with Missouri, pricing Illinois in nearly the same range as the Nebraska game despite public reluctance. That’s telling. Illinois didn’t suddenly lose its identity or capability because of one blip. The Fighting Illini still have the size, athleticism and 2-way balance to dictate terms for 40 minutes. Missouri’s record looks shiny, but the Illini are being discounted because of one recent result that had emotional viscous attached — not because the matchup changed. This is a spot in which the market overreacts to a single result. This is also where we step in. We’ll trust the underlying quality that the Illini possess on a regular basis. Illinois wins this game by the necessary margin.

Illinois vs Missouri prediction: Illinois -9 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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This is a purely academic play. Arizona is ranked as the top team in the country, and with that ranking comes automatic inflation in the betting market. Brand power, poll position and public appetite all collide to produce numbers like this. Bethune Cookman doesn’t factor into the pricing equation as a basketball team; BC exists here as a name that allows Arizona to lay a mountain of points.

But motivation matters. Christmas break is around the corner, conference play is looming and Arizona has nothing to prove in this spot. This isn’t a statement game; it’s an obligation. The Wildcats’ goal is simple: get through it clean, spread the minutes, avoid injuries and move on with the #1 ranking intact. Covering nearly 40 points is not part of the mission statement. When elite teams face low-profile opponents in these pre-holiday windows, intensity drops fast once control is established. Rotations widen, pace slows and the foot comes off the gas. That’s where inflated numbers go to die. Bethune Cookman doesn’t need to be competitive for 40 minutes; it just needs Arizona to disengage for a stretch or 2. This isn’t about basketball quality — Desert Storm is clearly superior. This is about paying a tax for that perception in a less than conducive spot. I’m betting against excess, not against Arizona.

Bethune Cookman vs Arizona prediction: Bethune Cookman +39.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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