Air Force Falcons vs San Diego State Aztecs Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 12/17/25

Mountain West conference play gets underway this week as the Air Force Falcons face the San Diego State Aztecs. This is a matchup between what should be the most talented and least talented rosters in the conference. The Aztecs have aspirations of once again playing in March, and they should. As for Air Force, it is a constant uphill battle when you can’t really bring in transfers or spend NIL money, and that has this roster depleted and lagging behind others. It is really hard to swallow a 23.5-point spread in a conference game, almost regardless of who it is, but I think taking the Aztecs to win big is the right play here.

When we look under the hood at the metrics, the problems run deep for the boys from the Academy. KenPom rates them at 322 (out of 365), and their offensive efficiency checks in at 343. That is hard to survive on just about any day, and even more so against an Aztec team that is lurking around the top 50 defensively. San Diego State will be bigger and faster at every position, and Air Force does not shoot 3s often or well, nor do they rebound well, the things that can sometimes keep a lesser team in a game like this. I just don’t see the path for the Falcons. Give me the Aztecs big.

Air Force vs San Diego State Prediction: San Diego State -23.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.