Arizona State Sun Devils vs Baylor Bears Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 02/21/26

The Baylor Bears host the Arizona State Sun Devils on Saturday afternoon in Waco. The Bears come into the game riding a 4-game losing streak, and they seem to have packed it in for the season. The Sun Devils, on the other hand, have won 2 straight, including a big home win this week against Texas Tech. The metrics sites all still like this Baylor team for some reason, and they are favored by 7 points at home. That is hard to play, especially with as unreliable as Baylor is. But it is also hard to back a road team in the Big 12 in just about any circumstances. Instead, I am looking at the total, which seems high at 157.5. I’ll take the under.

These teams will run when they get the chance, but they do not otherwise play at breakneck speeds. The defenses should be the better units out there. Baylor’s defense has been gross lately, which is a concern here, but you have to think they are going to rise up and play with some pride at home at some point. Baylor tends to play to the under as long as they aren’t playing the most extremely offensive-minded teams (like BYU), and ASU hasn’t really blown past this number much either. I don’t think both teams are getting into the 80s, and an 80-75 game one way or another seems more likely. Let’s take the under in this spot.

Arizona State vs Baylor Prediction: Under 157.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.