Baylor Bears vs Houston Cougars Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 03/04/26

No. 7 Houston is coming off one of their best games of the season against Colorado, where the Cougars shot 59.6% from the floor. Milos Uzan tied his season high with 26 points in that matchup and will look to stay hot against a struggling Baylor team. The last time these two teams met was on January 10th, when Houston won 77-55 on the road. The Cougars dominated the glass, outrebounding the Bears 45-34, while also forcing Baylor into 16 turnovers. Houston’s defense has been dominant in conference play, holding opponents to just 62.3 points per game compared to Baylor’s 77.  

Offensively, Houston isn’t known for lighting up the scoreboard as they prefer to play at a slower pace, but they are still averaging 77.5 points per game compared to Baylor’s 82.7. According to KenPom, the Cougars rank 350th in adjusted tempo (63.2 possessions per 40 minutes) while Baylor ranks 158th (67.7). Kelvin Sampson won’t let his team overlook this matchup. Houston has lost three of its last four games, and with only two games left in the regular season, this is a great opportunity for the Cougars to regain their rhythm and take advantage of a favorable matchup at home. Look for Houston to control the pace for the full 40 minutes, dominate the glass, and force Baylor to turn it over a handful of times to help them cover this large spread. 

Baylor vs Houston prediction: Houston -15.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.