Butler Bulldogs vs St. John's Red Storm Prediction, Odds and Picks for Wednesday, 01/28/26

There are several layers working in favor of St. John’s here, and the surface numbers only tell part of the story. At first glance, the ATS records might steer bettors toward Butler — the Bulldogs sit at 12-8 against the number while St. John’s is 9-11. Pair that with a double-digit spread and it’s easy to see why taking the points looks attractive. But once you shift from season-long trends to game environment, the picture changes quickly.

Butler has struggled away from home, going just 1-4 straight up on the road. St. John’s has been a different team in Queens at 9-2 SU. That home-court edge isn’t cosmetic; the Red Storm feed off tempo, defensive pressure and crowd energy that tends to overwhelm visiting teams lacking depth. History reinforces the matchup edge: St. John’s has won 9 of the last 10 meetings and covered 8 of them, and they notably weren’t laying this kind of number in those games — a sign the market’s rating of SJU has risen. Strength of schedule is another separator. KenPom ranks St. John’s schedule 19th nationally compared to Butler’s 206th. The Red Storm are battle-tested and still own the better record. When you combine home dominance, series control and schedule strength, the larger spread looks justified. St. John’s has the profile to control this game from start to finish.

Butler vs St. John’s prediction: St. John’s -12.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -13.

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