Colorado Buffaloes vs Houston Cougars Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 02/28/26

Road/home splits are the entire case here. The Buffs have won just one game on the road this season and the Cougars have lost just once in their own barn. Houston’s identity is defense, rebounding, and physicality. That becomes particularly suffocating in the Fertitta Center. Colorado’s season profile shows they’ve struggled away from Boulder and struggled to punch up. Colorado is 0–5 SU vs ranked opponents this season, and their road issues amplify how much of a bad spot this is for them against one of the best in the business.

Houston can build margin here without needing a scoring heater. Even while on a rare three-game losing streak, Houston still profiles as an elite defense, and as such they were competitive in these three defeats against some serious heavyweights: Kansas, Arizona, and Iowa State. Colorado is not remotely close to any of these teams. Defense-first favorites are ones that can cover big spreads easier because they keep the underdog from hanging around with easy points. If Colorado’s offense has to live in the half court for 40 minutes, the scoring floor drops, and once the floor drops, backdoors become harder to access. The number implies Houston can separate in multiple segments. At home, with Colorado’s aforementioned vulnerabilities, that’s the correct read.

Colorado vs Houston prediction: Houston -19 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to the number.