Connecticut Huskies vs Michigan Wolverines Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 04/06/26

We’ve come to the end, and it is championship Monday. We have the Michigan Wolverines vs the Connecticut Huskies. UConn is in their third title game in four years, and Dan Hurley has built the closest thing to a dynasty we are likely to see anymore in college basketball. His squad has proven impossible to eliminate, and they have been a covering machine too. As for Michigan, the Wolverines will be seeking only their second title ever. Dusty May is making his second career appearance in the title game (he took Florida Atlantic there in 2023). The Wolverines have been a force all season, and they are heavily favored on Monday. So before Luther Vandrose queues up One Shining Moment, how do we bet this title game?

This is one of the harder championship games to bet, because either outcome has a really obvious path to hit, and it has the potential to miss so badly that we are left feeling like idiots. The “I should have seen that coming” and the “that was so obvious, easy money” crowds are both going to be out in force. For Michigan, they have obliterated everyone in this tournament, scoring 90+ in each game and winning by an average of more than 20 points per game. That includes dismantling two really good teams in Tennessee and Arizona to get here. This is also a team that announced themselves by winning 10 straight in Nov/Dec by 20+. If they dismantle UConn, we shouldn’t be surprised. On the other hand, UConn always covers, and if they cover again, who would be surprised?

I am siding with Michigan to cover, but I am not pushing this number much further. It opened at -5.5 and pushed quickly out to -7.5 before moving back to -7. Yaxel Lendeborg appears to have avoided a major injury and should play. Michigan is the #2 team in the country at protecting the rim, and I don’t see how they would allow UConn to just keep shooting open 3s instead, at least not the way that Illinois just did. The Huskies are not good at drawing fouls, and they put their opponent on the line a lot. UConn is a great transition defense that will be a fun match for a Michigan team that rarely runs offense in the halfcourt set, but I think Michigan is too much here. Give me Michigan to pull away and cap a tremendous, historic season. But do be warned: as is often the case in big games, Vegas wins the most with the dreaded win-no-cover, and that seems to be where we are headed here too.

UConn vs Michigan Prediction: Michigan -7 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable to -7.5.