Dayton Flyers vs George Washington Revolutionaries Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 02/27/26

Dayton just whacked the #23 team in the country in St. Louis on Tuesday, leading by as much as 25 against the Billikens in route to a 77-62 win. A result of that magnitude is bound to create an overreaction. Against a 16-12 Revolutionaries team, the Flyers should notch their 20th win or so the market perceives. And yet, Dayton comes in priced in the same range when they beat St. Louis on Tuesday. A possession-plus the hook underdog.

This has shades of the Miami-UNC game that we handicapped earlier this month after the Tar Heels stunned the Blue Devils in Chapel Hill. No one gave UNC a chance to beat the Blue Devils who are now the #1 team in the country by the way and despite trailing the entirety of the contest, UNC won a walk-off three-pointer. Subsequently, the Heels came in flat against the Canes in a match that had an odd line with Miami initially favored. Obviously no two games are the same but the context is similar, Dayton just achieved their signature win this season and now they are on the road with a short turnaround where they are prone to be flat. That’s why the Revolutionaries are favored. Another thing to consider is what happened against the Bills. Dayton shot an unsustainable 64% from the field in the first half and built up a huge lead from otherworldly shooting. Once the Flyers cooled off, the Bills were able to mount a run but it was too much to overcome. In other words, Tuesday’s result was an outlier and the oddsmakers expect Dayton to regress to the mean against a GW team that can score at will (83 points per game) and sits 11-3 in their own barn. Dayton is just 4-5 SU away from home. With a Blue Out staged, this is an uncomfortable spot for the Flyers to follow up on and the line says things come full circle in D.C.

Missouri vs Kentucky prediction: Kentucky -13 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to the number.