Houston Cougars vs Arizona Wildcats Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 03/14/26

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The Big 12 championship features the top 2 teams in the conference, as the Houston Cougars face the Arizona Wildcats. These teams are loaded, hungry and poised for a deep run in the NCAA Tournament — but first they will face off for the conference title. Houston easily dispatched Kansas last night, while Arizona had to win with a dramatic buzzer-beater against a tremendous Iowa State squad. Arizona won the only regular-season meeting, taking down Houston 73-66 in Houston (and star freshman Koa Peat missed that game for Arizona). I expect the Wildcats to win the rematch, and I will take them to cover -2.5.

The first matchup was not a flawless performance by the Wildcats, but they still got the win. Houston won the battle on the boards, and it held the ‘Cats to just 3-for-12 shooting beyond the arc. Arizona won that game by forcing turnovers, scoring in transition and scoring in the paint. I expect those advantages to remain. Houston’s calling card is its elite defense, but over the course of the season, Arizona actually checks in a notch higher in that department. We would really be splitting hairs here, as the Wildcats and Cougars rank #3 and #5 defensively (per KenPom), but the point remains that we can’t overlook the Arizona defense. I expect the Cougars to have a hard time against a team they can’t bully. Give me Arizona to take the crown in Kansas City.

Houston vs Arizona prediction: Arizona -2.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.