Indiana Hoosiers vs Purdue Boilermakers Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 02/20/26

A breaking down of X’s and O’s isn’t required here. This is about the emotional intangibles in play. The Hoosiers and the Boilermakers don’t like each other. Their rivalry speaks for itself. However, Purdue is thinking about snagging a top-2 seed in March Madness and trying to somehow stop Michigan from winning the Big Ten. None of that actually affects what happens on the court here and now, but the point is that the market will invest in those notions and overlook the Hoosiers. That makes IU an afterthought, which also means it is likely taking back an inflated number.

Pricing a side in a contest like this one is not solely about who is better. It’s about who is in demand. The Boilermakers are highly in demand in this spot and thus they are overvalued. Are we calling for an upset ouright? No. But given the nature of the rivalry, Indiana can approach this game like its National Championship. This is an opportunity for the Hoosiers to go to West Lafayette and give their arch nemesis some static. Thus, motivation will be at a premium and Indiana is taking back an enhanced number. That’s where the value lies. Rivalry games often defy logic, statistics and narratives. They are one of the treasures of collegiate athletics for that very reason because the unthinkable often occurs. Once again, we don’t need the Hoosiers to win — we just need them to show up. If IU does that, the things it does well (playing stout defense, holding opponents to 41% from the field, and facilitating ball movement efficiently) will keep it in position to be competitive. We have more than enough points in our back pocket should they do that.

Indiana vs Purdue prediction: Indiana +11 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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