Iowa Hawkeyes vs Illinois Fighting Illini Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 03/28/26

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A pair of Big Ten teams are set to face off in the Elite Eight as the #2 seed Illinois Fighting Illini take on the #9 seed Iowa Hawkeyes. Illinois was terrific in its win over Houston, shooting 43.1% from the floor and dominating the glass, 43-34. This is a loaded Illini team with five players averaging double figures, but all eyes will be on Keaton Wagler and his ability to lead them to the Final Four. Wagler is averaging 17.7 points and 5.1 rebounds per game, while David Mirkovic provides a strong interior presence inside with 13.7 points and 8 rebounds per game – something Iowa will need to account for defensively.  

For Iowa, Bennett Stirtz is coming off his best performance of the tournament, scoring 20 points with four assists against Nebraska. However, he struggled in the earlier matchup against Illinois, finishing with just 12 points on 5-of-17 shooting. According to KenPom, Illinois ranks 21st in adjusted defensive efficiency (97.5) compared to Iowa who ranks 32nd (99.9). Offensively, Illinois ranks 2nd (131.4) and Iowa 20th (123.8). When these two teams met earlier in the season, Illinois walked away with a 75-69 victory. The Illini did a great job at controlling the boards but committed 12 turnovers, which led to easy transition points for Iowa. If Illinois can clean up those mistakes and limit turnovers, their size, depth, and offensive efficiency should give them the edge. After seeing how Illinois handled Houston’s physical defense, they appear well-positioned to handle Iowa’s pressure and control this game. Look for the Fighting Illini to take over down the stretch and punch their ticket to the Final Four. 

Iowa vs Illinois prediction: Illinois -7 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.