Iowa State Cyclones vs TCU Horned Frogs Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 02/10/26

Tuesday’s Big 12 matchup sends the #5 Iowa State Cyclones (21-2) on the road to face the TCU Horned Frogs (14-9) in Fort Worth, with the total set at 147.5. Iowa State has been one of the nation’s most efficient teams, posting a massive +481 scoring differential while averaging 85.9 points per game (21st nationally) and holding opponents to just 65.0 ppg (16th nationally). While the Cyclones knock down 9.1 3-pointers per game, their identity remains defense first, forcing turnovers and limiting clean looks in the half court. On the road, Iowa State’s offensive output dips noticeably to 77.2 ppg away from Ames, but their defensive intensity has remained consistent, a key factor in keeping road games tightly controlled. TCU averages 78.9 points per game on the season while allowing 72.0 ppg, and their offense has cooled recently, scoring 77.1 ppg over the last 10 games, reinforcing the expectation of a more measured pace.

Betting trends further support a lower scoring profile. Iowa State road games are 5-1 to the under this season, and when listed as favorites, Cyclone games are 9-5 to the under, showing a clear tendency toward controlled tempo and defensive execution. TCU has the athleticism to push pace in spurts, but inconsistent perimeter shooting has prevented sustained scoring runs against high-level defenses. Iowa State’s ability to dictate possessions, contest shots and force difficult looks late in the shot clock often drags opponents into grind-it-out games in the 130s and low 140s. With both teams allowing well below the 147.5 total on average and Iowa State’s road and favorite trends aligning with their defensive metrics, this Big 12 clash profiles as a methodical contest.

Iowa State vs TCU prediction: Under 147.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 146.5.

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