Iowa State Cyclones vs Texas Tech Red Raiders Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 03/12/26

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The early game on the Big 12 slate features #5 Iowa State vs #4 Texas Tech. Tech will be playing its first game of the tournament, while the Cyclones got a feel-good win over Arizona State on Wednesday, winning by nearly 50. Hopefully you are aware that Texas Tech lost Big 12 player of the year JT Toppin for the season, but the Red Raiders are by no means impotent without him. In fact, even without Toppin, Tech recently beat Iowa State in Ames, which is one of the toughest home venues in college basketball. Still, I think Iowa State is about to go on a run in this conference tournament, and I like them to win the game. While I am less comfortable with the cover, I’ll still take them at -5.5.

In the prior matchup, the Cyclones had a dreadful night shooting. Part of that was the Tech defense, but part of it was just an anomalous night. They shot a mere 39% from the floor, and they allowed Tech to dominate the boards also. To make matters worse, the Red Raiders shot nearly 60% from the floor that night themselves. Both teams should regress back to the mean on Thursday. Let’s also remember that Iowa State already has a game under their belt, which often is an advantage over the teams with the double byes, and this crowd will also feel like a Cyclone home game. This is a good spot to back the ‘Clones.

Iowa State vs Texas Tech prediction: Iowa State Cyclones -5.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.