Louisville Cardinals vs North Carolina Tar Heels Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 02/23/26

Big Monday features a key clash in the ACC between the Louisville Cardinals and the North Carolina Tar Heels in Chapel Hill. Both teams are locks for the NCAA tournament at this point but both also sit tied at 9-5 in the ACC standings, which is only sixth place. A win here would be important for seeding and postseason paths. The key decision you have to make in this game is how to evaluate North Carolina without Caleb Wilson, who will miss his fourth straight game. For me, I think that loss is more impactful than has yet been exposed, and the explosive Louisville offense might be the team to expose that. Give me Cardinals -2 for my North Carolina vs Louisville prediction.

The trick here is that the Tar Heels have not yet lost at home, a perfect 15-0 this season. They have also won 2 of 3 without Wilson, although the wins were against Pitt and Syracuse, while they lost to NC State by 24 (another fast-paced, explosive offense). Do we think that playing at home is enough to overcome the loss of their leading scorer? For the Cardinals, this team is on a roll behind their own superstar freshman, Mikel Brown Jr. They were annihilated at Duke a month ago, but since then they have won 6 of 7. I think this Louisville offense is enough to carry the day. UNC has a weakness defending the three-point shot, and Louisville makes a ton of them. Look for that to make the difference tonight. I don’t want to push this line out very far, but if we can get the Cardinals by a bucket then I’ll take it.

Louisville vs North Carolina prediction: Louisville -2 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -2.5.

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