Memphis Tigers vs Louisville Cardinals Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 12/13/25

This is the exact moment to step in front of Memphis. The Tigers have been a bettor’s dream so far, sitting at 7-1 against the spread despite an even 4-4 straight-up record. That alone tells you everything about how the market is treating them: Memphis has become the trendy side, the automatic “take the points” team, even when facing a ranked opponent. That’s usually when the value dries up. Louisville is not just another quality foe — this is a program with real substance behind the number. The Cardinals already own road wins at Indiana, handled Kentucky, and went into Cincinnati in a rivarly spot and won by double digits. That’s not hype, that’s résumé. Louisville has consistently shown the ability to control games against credible opposition, and they’ve done it in hostile environments, not just at home like where they are playing this one.

Memphis, by contrast, is living off one marquee result: the upset of Baylor at home in their most recent outing. That win absolutely mattered, but it’s also inflating perception further. Replicating that type of performance on the road, in one of the most intense home environments in college basketball, is a completely different assignment. That’s why the number has bloated despite Memphis pulling off the upset. The line isn’t disrespectful to Memphis; it’s a reflection of Louisville’s capability. The Cardinals are being priced like a team that can put its foot on the gas and keep it there. When a team with Memphis’ profile keeps cashing, the market responds by daring you to keep riding. This is the point where you don’t, even if it appears opposite. Louisville isn’t here to trade buckets or coast late. They have the physicality, scoring balance, and home-court edge to separate decisively. This is where Memphis’ ATS run meets a hard stop. Lay the points.

Memphis vs Louisville prediction: Louisville -15.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to the number.