Memphis Tigers vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 12/20/25

After a tough overtime loss to Vanderbilt, the Tigers will look to get back on track against Mississippi State on Saturday afternoon. Memphis struggled shooting the ball against Vandy, hitting just 35.9% from the floor, and they’ll need to be more efficient offensively if they want to keep things close with the Bulldogs. Mississippi State is coming off back-to-back wins and they hope they can get their season turned around as they find themselves at the bottom of the SEC standings. 

Memphis will look to Dug McDaniel to help lead his team in this matchup. On the season, the senior is averaging 14.5 points, 5.5 assists, and 3.2 rebounds per game. For Mississippi State, Josh Hubbard leads the team with 21.6 points, 3.9 assists, and 2.7 rebounds per game. The junior is coming off his best game of the season, dropping 34 points against LIU. According to KenPom, Memphis holds the advantage defensively as they rank 32nd in adjusted defensive efficiency compared to Mississippi State who ranks 95th. The Tigers don’t have a lot of depth on their team with just two players averaging double digits, but they have played significantly harder teams than the Bulldogs this year. Memphis has faced then-No. 1 Purdue (lost by 9), then-No. 11 Louisville (lost by 26), and then-No. 13 Vanderbilt (lost by 7). Mississippi State has played just one ranked opponent, then-No. 16 Iowa State, where they lost by 16. Memphis may not look as good on paper, but I think the Tigers can keep this game close and limit the damage done by Hubbard with their defensive pressure, making Memphis my best bet of the day. 

Memphis vs Mississippi State prediction: Memphis +3.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.