Memphis Tigers vs North Texas Mean Green Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 02/12/26

At first glance, this looks like a strange price. Memphis is just 2–6 straight up on the road, yet the Tigers are still favored in a difficult environment against a disciplined North Texas team. That alone tells you something about the power rating gap the oddsmakers still see between these programs. North Texas attracts support because of its home-court reputation, where the Mean Green are 9-3 straight up. They also play with a defensive-minded and physical style, but that same style creates thin margins. When games are played in the half court with limited possessions, the outcome often comes down to shot-making. That’s where Memphis has the edge.

The Tigers have more perimeter shot creators and can generate more ways to manufacture offense when a possession breaks down. The Mean Green meanwhile, sit among the worst nationally in three-point percentage (339th) and are just above 300th nationally in field goal percentage (43%). UNT lives and dies by their defense. But Memphis can adapt. The Tigers are better from beyond the arc and they let off 61 field goals per game overall on average (150th nationally). The key here is offensive ceiling versus offensive control. The Tigers have the higher ceiling even if North Texas can dictate tempo. However, UNT doesn’t have the scoring pop to create separation routinely. Memphis, even in road struggles, is more capable of putting together a decisive stretch that flips a tight game.

The road record may scare bettors off, but that’s already baked into the number and still the Tigers are the chalk. If this comes down to late-game execution, which slow North Texas games often do, the Tigers have the better profile to close it out. That’s why the oddsmakers are leaning on Memphis here. We’ll follow their lead.

Memphis vs North Texas prediction: Memphis -1 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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