Memphis Tigers vs South Florida Bulls Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 02/19/26

A part of this handicap is focusing on the fact that heavy juice is required to back South Florida on the point spread (-120), That’s a big no-no. But this is all about understanding the Tigers’ path to a cover. Memphis has an emotional intangible in this series. It has owned the Bulls. Memphis has won 7 of the last 8 meetings outright.

The Tigers are having a down year, 12-13 SU overall. They have only won 2 games outside of the Music City. USF, meanwhile, looks like an AAC contender for a March Madness berth at 18-8 and it has gone 10-2 SU in Tampa. What happens as a result? Narrative. This is the spot that many will say the Bulls finally “get” the Tigers. And that may very well be the case. But the Bulls are not only being asked to win, but to do so by the necessary margin. That’s the tricky part. Forgetting the emotional angle that Memphis has working in its favor, the Tigers have an antidote for USF’s 13th-ranked scoring offense. The Tigers play defense. USF relies on scoring 88 points per game to notch wins and it has been good at doing that recently — 4 straight wins in which it broke that threshold in three of those victories. But read between the lines. This is a squad that gave up 88 points to UTSA (which is 5-21) and survived Florida Atlantic in a high-tempo scoring fest that saw the Bulls win by a bucket. There are red flags present and all that is being lost in the hype. Also, Memphis can slow down the USF onslaught and force them to play a more conservative game. This will make it harder for the Bulls to get separation and cover this sizable number. Let’s back the Tigers with the points.

Memphis vs USF prediction: Memphis +8.5 (-109) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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