Michigan State Spartans vs Kentucky Wildcats Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 11/18/25

Tom Izzo was not pleased with the way his team performed against San Jose State, even after securing a 19-point victory. The Spartans shot 48.3% from the field and held San Jose State to a 35.7% shooting from the field. Izzo is known for his defense, and his team will have its hands full as they prepare to take on Kentucky, who is ranked 8th in KenPom Adjusted Offensive Efficiency this season. 

Offensively, Michigan State simply isn’t on Kentucky’s level. According to KenPom, the Spartans rank 57th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, shooting 43.6% from the field. Meanwhile, the Wildcats are shooting 52.3% from the field and averaging nearly 93 points per game. Defensively, the gap is smaller – the Spartans rank 27th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, and the Wildcats are ranked 10th in that category. MSU is shooting just 43.6% from the field, and while their defense may be able to slow down Kentucky’s offense for a while, the Wildcats will be able to wear down this Spartans defense with their pace of play and pull away late in the game. Look for Kentucky to get the job done at home, making them my best bet of the day. 

Michigan State vs Kentucky prediction: Kentucky -5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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