Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Auburn Tigers Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 03/11/26

If Auburn wants to make this year’s NCAA Tournament, they can’t afford any missteps in this matchup against Mississippi State. The Tigers have dropped three of their last four games, and Mississippi State hasn’t performed much better dropping their last five. Both teams have struggled defensively all season, with Mississippi State allowing 81.9 points per game and Auburn is giving up 80.2. However, Mississippi State has been playing slightly worse as of late, giving up 99 points per game in their last five matchups – something this Auburn team needs to find a way to exploit. 

When these two teams met earlier in the season, Mississippi State pulled off the upset on their homecourt, winning 91-85. Auburn shot just 38.7% from the floor in that game while the Bulldogs knocked down 50% of their shots. If the Tigers want to win this matchup, they need to control the paint and prevent Josh Hubbard from having another explosive performance after he dropped 46 points in the first meeting. However, I don’t expect either defense to find much success in this matchup. Neither team has shown the defensive consistency to slow opponents down this season, and both have enough offensive depth to push the tempo and run  up the score. Even though Auburn has more at stake in this matchup, I expect another high-scoring battle between two teams that finished near the bottom of the SEC defensively this season. 

Mississippi State vs Auburn prediction: Over 158.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.