Missouri Tigers vs Illinois Fighting Illini Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 12/22/25

Illinois looks vulnerable on the surface, and that’s exactly what we want. Nine days ago, the Illini were a double-digit favorite against an undefeated Nebraska team and lost on a buzzer beater. That result is fresh in the market’s mind, and bettors are understandably hesitant to lay points again — especially in a neutral-site rivalry game against a Missouri team that enters 10–2. That hesitation is precisely what creates value here.

This is the Bragging Rights game, but despite the rivalry branding, the matchup itself leans Illinois. The oddsmakers are clearly daring the market to take the points with Missouri, pricing Illinois in nearly the same range as the Nebraska game despite public reluctance. That’s telling. Illinois didn’t suddenly lose its identity or capability because of one blip. They still have the size, athleticism, and two-way balance to dictate terms for forty minutes. Missouri’s record looks shiny, but the Illini are being discounted because of one recent result which had emotional viscous attached, not because the matchup changed. This is a spot where the market overreacts to a single result. This is also where we step in. We’ll trust the underlying quality that the Illini possess on a regular basis. Illinois wins this game by margin.

Illinois vs Missouri prediction: Illinois -9 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at number.