NC State Wolfpack vs Louisville Cardinals Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 02/09/26

The NC State Wolfpack (18-6, 9-2 ACC) travel to face the #24 Louisville Cardinals (17-6, 7-4 ACC) in a key ACC matchup with NC State catching +6.5. NC State enters as one of the league’s hottest teams, riding a 6-game winning streak following an 82-73 victory over Virginia Tech. The Wolfpack have thrived by controlling possessions, ranking second in the ACC and top 15 nationally in assist-to-turnover ratio while leading the league with a +4.2 turnover margin. That ball security has fueled an offense averaging approximately 85.7 points per game, with Darrion Williams (14.7 ppg, 5.3 rpg) and Paul McNeil (14.0 ppg) providing consistent scoring balance. Louisville’s defense allows about 70.7 ppg and holds opponents to roughly a 40.4% field-goal rate, numbers that suggest NC State can find scoring opportunities if it continues to value possessions.

Louisville counters with one of the ACC’s most reliable home court profiles, posting a 12-2 record at home while ranking among conference leaders in 3-pointers made (11.5 per game). The Cardinals are led by Ryan Conwell (18.4 ppg) and Isaac McKneely (12.2 ppg), and they have averaged roughly 78-80 points per game over their last 10 contests while shooting about 45% from the field. While Louisville’s offense is capable of pulling away in spurts, recent games have featured tighter margins and defensive lapses that disciplined teams have been able to exploit. With both sides fighting for ACC positioning, Louisville’s depth and home environment give them a slight edge, but NC State’s current form, turnover creation and efficient offense point toward a competitive game. If the Wolfpack continue to force mistakes and convert in transition, NC State +6.5 presents solid value.

NC State vs Louisville prediction: NC State +6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +6.

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