North Carolina Tar Heels vs Michigan State Spartans Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 11/27/25

Perhaps the crown jewel of the Thanksgiving Day college basketball slate is a classic battle between the North Carolina Tar Heels and the Michigan State Spartans. This game is at 4:30 eastern, at the perfect time to settle in on the couch after a big lunch. So grab your pie and head on down to Fort Myers with us for this one, a game that I expect Sparty to win. This is an MTE, but not a pure tournament, and these teams had Wednesday off. Carolina beat St. Bonaventure by 15 on Tuesday, while the Spartans dispatched East Carolina by 33. I am surprised this number is as short as it is, but I am happy to take Michigan State -2.5.

The Spartans have more roster continuity than the typical major program. They have 4 returning players that logged major minutes with last season’s Elite Eight squad, and they have already beaten Arkansas and Kentucky this year. In typical Izzo fashion, this is a methodical team that defends well, almost always out-rebounds the opponent, and does not turn the ball over much. The Tar Heels play differently. They want to be all gas and no brakes. Right now, they are a little depleted without the injured Seth Trimble, and while that didn’t get exposed much against the Bonnies, it should against the Spartans. I doubt that UNC can force the Spartans to speed up, and if the Spartans continue to control the glass and take care of the ball, they should win and cover here. Give me Michigan State -2.5 in a Thanksgiving special.

North Carolina vs Michigan State prediction: Michigan State -2.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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