Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Louisville Cardinals Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 02/04/26

Notre Dame finds itself at the bottom of the ACC with a 2-7 conference record, and on Wednesday, they’ll face No. 24 Louisville as they look to climb out of the league’s basement. The Fighting Irish showed some fight against Virginia a week ago, falling 100-97 in double overtime, but they struggled in their most recent outing against Syracuse, allowing the Orange to shoot 57.1% from the floor. That defensive performance is concerning heading into this matchup, as Louisville ranks 13th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (124.9) according to KenPom, and if Notre Dame can’t tighten things up early, they could find themselves playing from behind in a hurry. 

Louisville is coming off a dominant second half against SMU, outscoring the Mustangs 44-27 after the break to secure an 88-74 victory. The Cardinals shot 49.2% from the floor, and Mikel Brown Jr. had himself a big night with 20 points, three rebounds, and three assists. Louisville has a ton of depth with five players averaging double figures this season. While Notre Dame also has four players scoring in double digits, their offense operates at a much slower pace and lacks the efficiency of the Cardinals. KenPom has Louisville ranked 51st in Adjusted Tempo (69.9 possessions per 40 minutes), compared to Notre Dame’s 301st ranking at just 64.9 possessions. At the end of the day, Louisville is simply playing better basketball on both ends of the floor. Notre Dame is trending in the wrong direction, and slowing down this Cardinals offense won’t be easy. Look for Louisville to push the pace and have little trouble handling the Fighting Irish in this matchup. 

Notre Dame vs Louisville prediction: Louisville -17.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.