Oregon State Beavers vs San Francisco Dons Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 02/12/26

San Francisco has curb appeal this time of year. Once February and March hit, the Dons get priced like a program you can trust, while Oregon State fresh off a blowout loss to Gonzaga and new to the WCC conversation, gets treated like a generic underdog. That perception gap is exactly how you end up with a number like this one, but the margin is built on an assumption that Oregon State can’t stay functional for meaningful stretches. The Beavers have already shown they can.

Ignore the baseline season stats for a moment. Yes, Oregon State ranks near the bottom nationally in scoring and field-goal efficiency, but the profile isn’t as hopeless as it looks. In their recent drubbing against Gonzaga, they weren’t offensively dead on arrival—10-of-18 from three is a real signal, because it shows they can manufacture points even against an elite defense. Pair that with Oregon State’s naturally sluggish pace, and you get the most important ingredient for an underdog cover: a shortened game where every possession is worth more. The box score optics will mislead where the blowout becomes the headline. However, this essential wrinkle we mentioned gets ignored. Finally, there is one other key question: is San Francisco currently worthy being this kind of favorite? Their form says no. They are just 14-12 SU, a team 1-4 overall in its last five, and 2-3 ATS in that span. This is not the profile you want laying near double digits to a team with a team like the Beavers who do have offensive upside and the ability to shorten games. Oregon State doesn’t need to win here, they just need to be competent versus a slumping favorite.

Oregon State vs San Francisco prediction: Oregon State +8.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to +8.

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