Penn Quakers vs Illinois Fighting Illini Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 03/19/26

The #3 seed Illinois will take on #14 seed Penn in the opening round of this NCAA Tournament, and while this South Region is filled with potential upset candidates, this matchup shouldn’t be one of them. Illinois enters as the clear favorite and should be in control from the opening tip. The Fighting Illini bring a major advantage in both size and depth, which will be difficult for Penn to handle for a full 40 minutes. A key player to watch is David Mirkovic, who presents a tough matchup with his versatility. He’s averaging 13.4 points and 7.8 rebounds per game, and his ability to stretch the floor makes him even more dangerous. Mirkovic is shooting 37.1% from beyond the arc this season, meaning Penn won’t be able to simply pack the paint to slow him down. 

Penn is coming off an impressive overtime win against Yale in the Ivy League Championship, and while that momentum gives them confidence heading into the NCAA Tournament, this is a much tougher matchup against Illinois. On the season, the Quakers are averaging 76.1 points per game while allowing 73.3, and they’ve also struggled from the free-throw line, converting just 69.3%. TJ Power is coming off a massive performance against Yale, pouring in 44 points, but it’s to envision a repeat against a Fighting Illini defense that’s allowing just 69.8 points per game. Penn is 0-2 against Quad 1 opponents, and 1-4 against Quad 2 teams this year. Illinois has the size, length, and defensive discipline to make scoring much more difficult, especially for a Penn team stepping up in competition. Freshman Keaton Wagler will be tough for Penn to defend as he can beat you inside or from deep. When Penn faced Villanova, they lost by 27 points, and we can expect a similar outcome in this matchup. Look for Illinois to come out firing in the first round and not letting up as the game goes on, making it a long day for Penn. 

Penn vs Illinois prediction: Illinois -24.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.