San Francisco Dons vs Saint Mary's Gaels Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 02/07/26

As we wind down the betting day, we head to the west coast for a key conference matchup between the San Francisco Dons and the St. Mary’s Gaels. St. Mary’s sits at 9-2 in the conference and in a heated race with Santa Clara and Gonzaga. San Francisco sits in 4^th place, but at 6-6, they aren’t really in the race at this point. There is quite a bit of gap between the top 3 teams in this conference and everyone else, and that has me leaning toward the Gaels in this spot. These two teams played just a few weeks ago, and St. Mary’s took that game by a score of 82-68 at SF. Lines are sharp this time of year, and this line feels pretty much on target, but I look for the Gaels to produce a similar result in the second meeting. Give me St. Mary’s -11.5.

In the first matchup, nearly everything went the way the metrics would expect. St. Mary’s dominated the boards (36-24), and the Gaels shot a lot more free throws (25 to 13). Both things are totally expected based on season-long metrics, and I would expect similar discrepancies against on Saturday. In the first matchup, the Dons shot a lot more 3s (26 to 15), but St. Mary’s was more efficient in making theirs, hitting 8 of 15. Again, those trends would be expected based on the season-long metrics. While the Gaels might regress a bit on that shooting percentage, everything else could—indeed should—repeat itself, and that would give us a similar result. I’ll risk St. Mary’s on the spread, especially playing at home.

San Francisco vs St. Mary’s Prediction: St. Mary’s -11.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.