SMU Mustangs vs Duke Blue Devils Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 01/10/26

After their loss to Texas Tech, Duke may have gone 3-0, but it hasn’t been pretty. Duke narrowly escaped with an 85-79 victory over Georgia Tech, pulling away in the final minutes, sneaked by Florida State 91-87 thanks to solid free-throw shooting in the final seconds, and overcame a nine-point deficit after the first half against Louisville and walked away with an 84-73 victory. On Saturday, they’ll be set to face a SMU team that isn’t easy to defend. If the Blue Devils want to stay undefeated in conference play, they’ll need to step up their defensive presence in this one. 

SMU is averaging 90.1 points per game, slightly higher than Duke’s 87.1. The Mustangs have strong guard play with Boopie Miller, who averages 20.6 points per game, Jaron Pierre Jr.(17.9), and B.J. Edwards (13.5). SMU had a slow start in their last matchup against a tough Clemson defense, shooting just 37.3% from the floor, well below its season average of 49.8%. Duke’s defense hasn’t been strong in conference play, and I don’t think they’ll be able to slow down this SMU offense enough to win by double digits. Look for the Mustangs to create issues for Duke on defense, keeping this game much closer than Duke would like. 

SMU vs Duke prediction: SMU +12 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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