Tennessee State vs Iowa State Cyclones Prediction, Odds and Picks for Friday, 03/20/26

#15 seed Tennessee State Tigers will get ready to take on the #2 seed Iowa State Cyclones on the second day of first-round matchups. Tennessee State comes out of the Ohio Valley Conference, where they dominated Morehead State in the championship game, shooting 49.3% from the floor. The Tigers have three players averaging double figures this season, led by Aaron Nkrumah with 17.6 points per game, and with Travis Harper II right behind him at 17.3. This backcourt is talented and capable of creating offense, but this matchup represents a major jump in competition. Earlier in the season, Tennessee State faced Tennessee and suffered a 29-point loss – something that could foreshadow what’s ahead here.  

On the other side, Iowa State has been one of the more dynamic offensive teams in the country. According to KenPom, they rank 21st in adjusted offensive efficiency, scoring 123.8 points per 100 possessions. Milan Momcilovic leads the Cyclones with 17.1 points per game and presents a matchup nightmare – he can score at the rim and stretch defenses, shooting an impressive 49.6% from beyond the arc. Defensively, Tennessee State has struggled, ranking near the bottom of their conference while allowing 73.3 points per game and opponents to shoot 44.4% from the field. Iowa State holds opponents to just 65.1 points per game on 42.6% shooting. The Cyclones also thrive on defensive pressure, forcing opponents into 15.3 turnovers per game. 

While Tennessee State does a solid job protecting the basketball, handling Iowa State’s aggressive defense will be a major challenge. In the end, the Cyclones simply have too much talent on both ends of the floor. While Tennessee State may have the slight rebounding advantage, I don’t expect that to make a big impact in this matchup. Look for Iowa State to control this game from start to finish and roll comfortably into the next round of the NCAA Tournament. 

Tennessee State vs Iowa State prediction: Iowa State -24.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.