Tennessee Volunteers vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 02/11/26

The Volunteers have March Madness pedigree and that’s key here. Tennessee will be a popular option by namesake but this is not the best spot to back the Big Orange. This contest features two teams that win through physicality, that’s not conducive for a road favorite laying a significant tag. Tennessee and Mississippi State often win games through possession battles, where shot quality matters more than pace and pyrotechnics. Mississippi State playing at home is delighted to play that style.

Both defenses pressure the ball, protect the paint, and limit second chances. That combination mitigates offense and makes the underdog with a nice helping of points, a tasty choice. There is another aspect to this spot which speaks about the league that both these participants play in: the SEC. The SEC is a gritty conference where basketball games are more like street fights. These games also tend to tighten late when both teams are solid like the Bulldogs and Vols are here. The Volunteers don’t play winning basketball on the road either, with Tennessee sitting at 2-4 on the year. Meanwhile, Mississippi State is 7-5 in Starkville. This is not only a game where the Bulldogs can cover but spring an outright upset. We’re happy to take the points in a game where baskets will be earned one possession at a time.

Tennessee vs Mississippi State prediction: Mississippi State +7 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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