Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Iowa State Cyclones Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 02/28/26

A key battle at the top of the Big 12 on Saturday features the Iowa State Cyclones hosting the Texas Tech Red Raiders. These teams are in a 4-way tie for 2^nd in the loaded Big 12 at 11-4 in the conference. Iowa State split a tough road trip in Utah last week, losing to BYU and surviving the Utes. Texas Tech lost JT Toppin in a loss at Arizona State, but then had a soft landing with Kansas State and Cincinnati after that. Saturday will be the real test of how the Red Raiders fare without Toppin. This number is big, but I am backing the Cyclones -9.5.

I have serious concerns about Tech without Toppin. He was probably the best player in the conference, and while the Red Raiders have done well so far in his absence, playing at Iowa State is just a different animal altogether. Hilton Coliseum is one of the biggest home court advantages in the sport, and the last time the Cyclones were at home, they beat both Kansas and Houston during the homestand. The Cyclones are undefeated at home, and they are tracking for a #1 seed in the Dance. Still, they do not draw nearly the attention that the other top teams do, and people still don’t recognize how good they really are. I think Texas Tech is in trouble on the road against a superior team, and we will really feel the absence of Toppin in this spot.

Texas Tech vs Iowa State Prediction: Iowa State -9.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.