Tulane Green Wave vs Temple Owls Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 03/05/26

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How is Tulane taking back this many points? The Green Wave already beat the Owls by double digits earlier this season, and they have covered in the last 3 meetings overall. Temple laying this number may look a bit absurd, but it reflects what the oddsmakers see, not what the market projects. The matchup advantage for Temple starts on the defensive end. The Owls have been most effective when forcing opponents into half-court execution, limiting easy transition opportunities, and turning games into physical possession battles. That style directly challenges Tulane as they are one of the worst rebounding teams on both ends of the court. Tulane won’t be able to find second-chance points, but the Owls will. That could easily lead to separation.

There is also one other element: luck. According to KenPom, Tulane is the 4th-luckiest team in the country. That means in games settled by 6 points or loss, the bounces and variance have all gone the Green Waves’ way, which also indicates that their record is not a true metric of what they bring to the table. Had a few of said bounces gone the other way, the Green Wave would have a worser record and they would likely be taking back even more points here. In a game nonetheless projected to be competitive but controlled, Temple’s defensive consistency, physicality, and home-court advantage can make this a spot where Tulane’s luck runs out. It also makes the Owls the side to lay the points with.

Tulane vs Temple prediction: Temple Owls -4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -5.

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