UCLA Bruins vs Michigan State Spartans Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 02/17/26

No. 15 Michigan State will look to stop the bleeding on Tuesday as they welcome UCLA to East Lansing. The Spartans have dropped three of their last four – a stretch that hasn’t sat well with head coach Tim Izzo. Expect Michigan State to get back to basics – a physical defense, rebounding, and making opponents uncomfortable for 40 minutes. UCLA enters this matchup reeling as well, coming off an 86-56 loss to Michigan, where the Bruins shot just 37.9% from the floor and struggled to generate consistent offense. This could be another long night for the Bruins as Michigan State ranks 7th according to KenPom in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (92.4) this season, despite their recent defensive struggles.  

The Spartans will have one goal in mind, slow down Tyler Bilodeau if they want to win this game. The senior is averaging 17.9 points and 5.6 rebounds per game this season and has been the leading scorer for the Bruins this season, but he’s not the only scoring threat they have. UCLA has five players averaging double digits this season, compared to the Spartans, who just have three. Leading Michigan State in offense is Jeremy Fears Jr., averaging 15.1 points and 9.2 assists per game. Michigan State has been terrific at home this season (12-2), and the only thing they can’t afford to do is have a slow start to this game. Michigan State has been a strong second-half team all season, and they should be in a position to pull away in this matchup. With Izzo’s experience and the energy of the home crowd, this sets up as a prime opportunity to reset the tone. Look for the Spartans to dictate the physicality, wear UCLA down defensively, and pull away late for a much-needed bounce-back win.  

UCLA vs Michigan State prediction: Michigan State -8.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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