UNLV Rebels vs Boise State Broncos Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 02/13/26

What speaks to us is the price — it looks rather big considering the Rebels beat the Broncos 89-85 in overtime in Las Vegas the last time they met in January. The Rebels were just +2.5 underdogs then. The fact that Boise is laying double-digits now is extremely telling, but the market is lining up to grab what appears to be a friendly amount of points. This spot has all the DNA of a “sucker bet” if one were to back the Rebels here. Let’s dive deeper.

A key angle is how Boise State performs at home versus how UNLV travels. Boise State’s offense isn’t built on volatility — it scores 79.2 points per game and wins by controlling tempo and shot quality rather than relying on streak shooting like the Rebels do. In January, UNLV ran hot but they can also run cold. This is one of their flaws. And that profile matters in revenge spots, where execution usually tightens and the team with the more stable half-court structure tends to create separation. The team with the more stable structure is undoubtedly Boise State. Its defensive profile (74.1 points allowed) suggests the Broncos can turn this into a possession game. UNLV’s defense gives up nearly 80 points per game and that stat is padded by 2 wins against a listless San Jose State within their last 8 outings, where SJSU scored 62 and 75. UNLV leaks points, make no mistake. In the other 6 contests over this 8-game sample, the Rebels gave up 78, 98, 89, 89, 82 and 76. They can easily get exposed again in a hostile environment at ExtraMile Arena, where Boise is 9-3 SU and plays with far more efficiency. This isn’t just a revenge angle — it’s also Boise’s added motivation and the environment where the game is being played. Boise needs résumé wins, knows what went wrong in the first meeting and now gets the Rebels right where it wants them. Let’slay the points with the home team in a focused bounce-back spot.

UNLV vs Boise State prediction: Boise State -10 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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