UNLV Rebels vs San Diego State Aztecs Prediction, Odds and Picks for Friday, 03/06/26

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It is the final game of the regular season for UNLV and San Diego State in Mountain West play. The Aztecs sit 1 game behind Utah State — but more importantly for the Aztecs, they sit firmly on the wrong list of the bubble right now. The Runnin’ Rebels in a 4-way log-jam in a tie for fifth in the conference. San Diego State won the first matchup by 11, but it has stumbled down the stretch — losing 4 of its last 5 games. Not coincidentally, the Aztecs have been facing the better teams in the conference in that stretch. I think this is a spot where the Aztecs win but do not cover. I am taking UNLV +10 on Friday night.

This game has the makings of a close one. Neither team shoots many 3s, nor does either one defend the line particularly well. The Rebels like to play fast, but that’s not easy to do against the defense of the Aztecs. This game will play more in the half-court than in transition — and while that favors the Aztecs, it does not point to them pulling away by a large margin. UNLV is exceptional at forcing contact and getting to the foul line, which tends to keep a game close. The key will be the turnover battle. San Diego State forces a lot of turnovers and needs a lot of TOs to be successful. If UNLV avoids live-ball turnovers, it will stay close.

UNLV vs San Diego State prediction: UNLV +10 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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