Utah State Aggies vs San Diego State Aztecs Prediction, Odds and Picks for Wednesday, 02/25/26

The key game of the Mountain West season is tonight, as the Utah State Aggies travel to face the San Diego State Aztecs. Utah State has a one-game lead in the standings, and a win here would all but lock up the regular season crown with 3 games remaining. If the Aztecs win, they force a tie for the stretch run. Utah State won the first meeting, 71-66, and prior to a loss at Nevada over the weekend, the Aggies had won 8 straight. The Aztecs have dropped two in a row (Grand Canyon, at Colorado St), and with a couple of tough road games remaining, this one is key. Still, I think Utah St is the better team, and even with the tough road assignment, I am taking the Aggies as short underdogs here.

The first matchup went more or less according to form. The difference in the game was a handful of offensive rebounds for the Aggies that generated a few extra shots and an advantage in points in the paint (which the metrics would expect). Both teams shot poorly from deep. If anyone is going to improve on that, it is likely to be the Aggies. Both teams took care of the ball well, which is a significant factor because both defenses tend to generate a lot of turnovers. Home court advantage is significant, but the season-long metrics suggest that Utah State has room to improve on the first matchup, and that has me leaning toward the Aggies winning this rematch. We are catching a point right now, but if this line flips during the day, that’s okay too.

Utah State vs San Diego State prediction: Utah State +1 (-120) available at the time of publishing. Playable to Utah State -1.5.

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