Vermont Catamounts vs UMBC Retrievers Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 03/14/26

It’s the American East final as the #2 seed Vermont Catamounts get ready to take on #1 UMBC Retrievers. These two teams met twice during the regular season, with the Catamounts winning one and the Retrievers winning the other. Heading into this matchup, we can expect a defensive battle. During the regular season, the Catamounts ranked second in the conference, giving up 68.4 points per game where the Retrievers ranked first, allowing 67.3 points per game. Offensively, the UMBC has the slight edge, scoring 76.3 points per game compared to Vermont’s 73.8. 

UMBC hasn’t lost a game since January 29th, and that lone defeat came against Vermont. In that matchup, the Catamounts shot 41% from the floor, and a big reason for their win was holding UMBC to just 33% shooting. These two teams are fairly even on paper, but even though Vermont has a slight edge in depth, this Retrievers team is very talented. Gus Yalden is the Catamounts best player, but he has struggled in tournament play. If Vermont wants to keep this game close, Yalden has to find his groove, but that won’t be easy when you have Jose Roberto Tanchyn protecting the paint and controlling the glass. UMBC has the slight rebounding advantage in this matchup, but they also have the advantage on both ends of the floor. The Retrievers just dominated UMass Lowell 91-69, shooting 54.1% from the floor. Vermont only put up 63 points against NJ Tech, shooting 41.8. This Retrievers team is playing significantly better than the Catamounts, so look for them to find their groove early offensively while shutting down the Catamounts, and moving on to punch their ticket for the big dance. 

Vermont vs UMBCprediction: UMBC -3 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.