Virginia Cavaliers vs Duke Blue Devils Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 02/28/26

Top-ranked Duke is set to host #11 Virginia in what should be an intense ACC battle. Duke currently sits in first place in the conference with a 14-1 record, while Virginia is right behind in second at 13-2. If Virginia can steal this game on the road, it could make the final stretch of the season extremely interesting — especially with Duke facing the tougher remaining schedule. The Blue Devils flexed their muscles in their last game against Notre Dame, rolling to a 100-56 victory while shooting 45.8% from the floor and holding the Fighting Irish to just 36.5% shooting. Virginia is coming off a dominant performance of its own, defeating NC State 90-61, shooting 53.4% while holding the Wolfpack to just 29.4%. This matchup could very well turn into a defensive battle. 

Offensively, Duke has a slight edge — averaging 83 points per game compared to Virginia’s 82.3. Defensively, Duke leads the ACC — allowing just 62.9 points per game. Virginia ranks third, giving up 67.8. A big part of Duke’s success this season comes from Cameron Boozer, who is averaging 22.7 points and 10.1 rebounds per game. Boozer’s size and talent make him extremely difficult for any team to defend in the paint. We saw that when Duke played Michigan, and it will be a major challenge for Virginia in this game. UVA has a star player of their own in Thijs De Riddler, who is averaging 16 points and 6.3 rebounds per game. However, he doesn’t bring the same level of explosiveness that Boozer provides for Duke. Despite their similar conference records, Duke has faced a much tougher schedule than Virginia. The ACC hasn’t been particularly deep this year, and Virginia is just 1-1 against top-25 opponents. Duke, on the other hand, is 9-2 against top-25 teams — including a 68-63 win over then-#1 Michigan. Duke has the depth, physicality and discipline to give this Virginia team a difficult time when it visits Cameron Indoor Stadium. Expect a loud environment and for the Blue Devils to clamp down defensively and pull away for a convincing win, moving a step closer to an ACC title. 

Virginia vs Duke prediction: Duke -10.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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