Xavier Musketeers vs Creighton Bluejays Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 01/21/26

In a league where margins are thin and games routinely come down to the final four minutes, getting two full possessions plus a hook is meaningful equity. Creighton is a strong team at home on paper, but they aren’t built to separate consistently for 40 minutes against physical opponents — and Xavier is physical. The Musketeers also don’t turn the ball over much either, they are one of the best in the country in Assist/Turnover ratio and Creighton’s defense is 354th in forcing the issue. That’s not a recipe for winning at margin.

This is a scenario that can produce a matchup-driven cover. Xavier’s best path is the most reliable one: rebounding and rim pressure. If they can win or even split the glass, they can limit Creighton’s second chances, which is key considering the Jays love to shoot the three in bursts. That’s key as that’s how the Jays tend to create margin. Xavier’s offense can be streaky, sure, but so is Creighton’s. They can look unstoppable when the threes are falling, but that also creates volatility. If the perimeter shooting is even slightly off, Xavier’s style drags this into a grinder where every possession matters — exactly the type of game where the points become extremely valuable. If the three isn’t working for Creighton, Xavier cannot only hang around here but perhaps they can even pull an upset.

Xavier vs Creighton prediction: Xavier +6.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to the number.