Xavier Musketeers vs St. John's Red Storm Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 02/09/26

On numerous occasions, I have written about overreactions and the importance of not “overreacting” to a single result. This is a case study on that philosophy. Let’s rewind. St. John’s just knocked off UConn in Queens on Friday. UConn was coming in with just 1 loss and that was to the the top-ranked team in the country, Arizona. The Huskies were ranked #5 in the polls overall and on paper this was their spot to take care of the Red Storm. The line however suggested otherwise. SJU wasn’t even taking back a full possession, which in turn would indicate that the Johnnies were live. And they were.

St. John’s won 81-72. It managed to make key stops to create separation from Connecticut; it has won 9 straight now. What does the market do? Overreact. Now the Johnnies are a -14.5 favorite after being a +1.5 underdog on Friday. That is a 16-point swing in one go. It is understandable that the Musketeers comparatively speaking are a far easier out from first glance when held up to UConn, but just a couple of weeks ago these 2 sides met in Cincinnati and Xavier lost by just 5 points. Now Xavier is getting nearly 15 points to work with? Sign us up. The drivers of the Connecticut win on Friday innately create an overreaction after an impressive result and they often manifest against a perceived “lesser” opponent like the Musketeers are here. However, this is not the right time to back the Red Storm. That was Friday. This is the time to look the other way because you are getting a Xavier team that knows it can compete with St. John’s at an inflated price. Let’s take the points.

Xavier vs St. John’s prediction: Xavier +14.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to +14.

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