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Friday’s weekly Big 12 special takes us to Florida for a battle between the Houston Cougars and the UCF Golden Knights. Friday night games are crazy and unpredictable, but in this case, I think one team is far better than the other. Both are looking to rebound from losses last week. UCF lost to Baylor, 30-3, in a game that the Knights were awful. That marked their 4^th conference loss, with their only victory coming at home against West Virginia. Coincidentally, that is who beat Houston last week in a surprise upset. The Cougars were upended by the Mountaineers, a painful second conference loss that likely will ruin any hopes of a sneaky conference championship appearance. Given those results, Houston is only a narrow favorite on the road here. I am happy to hammer the heck out of that, as the Cougs are the far better team. Give me Houston -1.

The problem for Houston last week was that they turned the ball over 4 times. Nobody should expect to win like that, and especially not a team that is mostly just average offensively. But the sneaky thing here is that the Houston offense has really been developing lately as Conner Weigman has gotten more comfortable. The UCF defense is a solid unit, ranking 20^th in the nation overall in total yardage allowed, but they still gave up over 400 yards and 30 points to Baylor last week, and Baylor had a big lead early and mostly took their foot off the gas. More concerning is the Knights’ offense, which looked bland, vanilla, predictable, and ineffective last week. And that was against a terrible Baylor defense; the Houston defense is much more formidable. I just don’t see this game going the way of the Knights, even at home on a Friday night.

Houston vs UCF Prediction: Houston -1 (-110) available at the time of publication. Playable to -2.5.

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A massive game in the AAC headline’s Friday night’s action when the Tulane Green Wave travel to Memphis to play the Tigers. Tulane enters this contest fresh off an ugly loss at UTSA in which the Green Wave turned the ball over 4 times, including 2 Jake Retzlaff interceptions, a Brendan Sullivan interception, and a fumble lost by RB Javin Gordon. The loss firmly removes Tulane from the College Football Playoff picture if it wasn’t already, but the Green Wave are still 3-1 in the AAC with a real chance to play for a conference championship with a win in Memphis on Friday night. 

Speaking of the CFP, Memphis sits at 8-1 with a renewed chance to be the postseason Group of 5 representative thanks to its comeback win over USF a couple weeks ago. The Tigers followed that performance up by taking care of business at Rice last week, easily covering the 14-point spread while holding the Owls to 212 total yards. QB Brendon Lewis left the game late to a lower-body injury, and his status is technically in question for this game. Though, we heard that leading up to the USF game, in which he ended up playing. Considering he practiced on Monday, expect Lewis to be a full-go here again.

Interestingly enough, Tulane is taking some money as I write this on Tuesday evening, which is a move I disagree with. First, this will be the 2nd game of a back-to-back road trip for Tulane, and playing on the road hasn’t been all that kind to the Green Wave this year despite coach Jon Sumrall’s prior success against the number as a visitor. For reference, Tulane is just 1-3 ATS on the road this year. Conversely, Memphis has been a money machine this year, currently 8-1 SU and ATS including home wins over the aforementioned Bulls and the Arkansas Razorbacks of the SEC. In fact, the Tigers have been impossible to beat at home since the start of last year. 

Obviously playing at home is advantageous, but playing clean football is also advantageous – and that’s exactly what Memphis has done of late. The Tigers have just 1 turnover in their last 3 games, bolstering their top-10 turnover margin. They’ve also been relatively clean from a penalty perspective, sitting top-50 in penalties per game. Meanwhile, the Green Wave are 116th in penalties per game, and though Retzlaff has thrown just 3 picks this year, he has 8 turnover-worthy plays in his last 4 games – and it finally caught up to him last week when he was benched in the blowout loss to UTSA. Given the fact that Memphis is top-30 in havoc generated by defensive backs over the last 5 weeks, Retzlaff could be in for another turnover-filled day. 

Perhaps the biggest advantage for Memphis in this game is in the red zone. The Tigers reach the red zone at a top-20 rate and boast the 3rd-best scoring percentage in the country, which includes both touchdowns and field goals. When you cut that down to just touchdowns, the Tigers are #1, finding the end zone on 82% of their red zone trips. Tulane, on the other hand, has found pay dirt on just 50% of red zone trips. Defensively, it’s much of the same. The Tigers surrender points on 75% of opposing red zone trips, while the Green Wave yield points on over 86% of those possessions. 

Expecting Lewis to play, I make Memphis over a touchdown favorite at home against Tulane. Look for the Tigers to excel in red zone situations, play clean football, and make use of their more efficient and explosive rushing attack in a win and cover at home. For what it’s worth, if the opportunity presented itself, the Tigers would probably want to run the score up to make their CFP resume look better; just something to consider. 

Tulane vs Memphis prediction: Memphis Tigers -4.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -7. 

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The Ohio State Buckeyes hit the road for West Lafayette to battle the lowly Purdue Boilermakers. The No. 1-ranked Buckeyes rolled the Penn State Nittany Lions last week, and they have scored 34 or more points in each of the past 4 games, while going 7-0-1 ATS this season. The defense allowed 14 points in the first 2 quarters last week against the Nittany Lions, but the D has still allowed just 55 points through 8 games, or 6.9 points per game. Against Purdue, Ohio State rolled to a 45-0 win on November 9, 2024 last season in Columbus, covering a 37-point mark. The Buckeyes are 3-0 ATS in the past 2 meetings, covering spreads of 17 or more points. Ohio State has scored 41 or more points in 4 of the past 5 tries against Penn State, and the winning team has scored at least 41 points in each of the past 5 in the series.

For Purdue, the Boilermakers are 2-7 SU and 3-5-1 ATS. While the Boilermakers did put up a fight, falling just 21-16 last week at Michigan as a 21-point underdog, the offense continues to struggle to cobble together any points. The defense hasn’t really been trampled in the past 4 games, but that’s also against Michigan, Rutgers, Northwestern and Minnesota. In 3 straight games against USC, Notre Dame and Illinois, the Boilermakers allowed 132 total points, or 44.0 PPG, including 99 combined points against the Illini and Irish. QB Julian Sayin, WR Jeremiah Smith and the Buckeyes should roll the Boilermakers.

Ohio State vs Purdue prediction: Ohio State Buckeyes -30 (-110) at time of publishing. Playable to -33.5.

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This one isn’t rocket science. You’re getting an FCS tune-up opponent catching nearly 55 points, and at this stage of the season, that’s more of a strategic grab than anything else. The Citadel is stepping into a paycheck game, yes, but Ole Miss has zero incentive to turn this into a track meet. The Rebels have bigger fish to fry.

Next week, Florida comes to Oxford — and say what you want about the Gators, but they haven’t quit on their season, and they might even be playing better under Billy Gonzales right now. After Florida, Ole Miss hits a bye, then a rivalry date in Starkville with Mississippi State. Lane Kiffin knows what’s in front of him. This program is sniffing a 1-loss finish, maybe even a top-5 résumé in the CFP poll. Nobody here is interested in risking starters or flexing style points on The Citadel.

Expect Ole Miss to get out to a comfortable lead and immediately shift into “stay healthy, get reps, don’t show anything” mode. Starters get pulled, backups run the offense, and the clock becomes the Rebels’ friend. If The Citadel sneaks in even 1 or 2 touchdowns — and Ole Miss’ defense has certainly given up scores to lesser opponents this year — now you’re asking the Rebs to push 60 to cover. They won’t. Grab the points.

The Citadel vs Ole Miss prediction: The Citadel Bulldogs +54.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +54.

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Saturday night will feature a matchup between the UCLA Bruins and the Nebraska Cornhuskers. After starting the season 0-4, UCLA forced itself back into relevancy with 3 straight conference wins. The winning streak ended last week abruptly when the Bruins lost 56-6 against undefeated Indiana. Quarterback Nico Iamaleava could not avoid turnovers against Indiana. He finished the game completing less than 50% of his passes and with 2 interceptions. Iamaleava has now thrown only 1 touchdown and 4 interceptions in his last 2 games. The Bruins will try to bounce back against 6-3 Nebraska. Nebraska lost a heartbreaker last weekend against USC, 21-17. The Cornhuskers led 14-6 in the second half, but they could not stop USC’s comeback effort. Quarterback Dylan Raiola had a subpar outing, only throwing for 91 yards — his lowest total of the season. 

It seems UCLA’s winning ways after firing head coach DeShaun Foster in the middle of the season have come to an end. They once again looked like the team that started the season that lost their first 4 games by an average of 17 points. Iamaleava has been inconsistent this season, but he has the potential to be a future NFL quarterback. Unfortunately for Iamaleava, he will be going up against the second-ranked defense in the FBS against the pass. Nebraska allows only 128.3 yards passing per game, and we saw how dominant it can be last week against an excellent USC offense. The ‘Huskers held USC quarterback Jayden Maiava to 135 yards passing and 1 interception. Maiava completed just 9 of 23 passes throughout the game. UCLA’s offense relies heavily on Iamaleava; he leads the team in both rushing and passing. Nebraska has a good opportunity to bounce back from its poor offensive performance last week, especially on the ground. UCLA’s defense ranks 124th in FBS in rushing yards allowed at 195 yards per game. Nebraska’s running back room is led by junior Emmett Johnson, who has already run for 1002 yards this season and 10 touchdowns. If Johnson can get the running game started, passing lanes should open up later for Raiola.

Nebraska vs UCLA prediction: Nebraska ML (+105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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