With Hurricane Isaias looming in the Gulf of Mexico, there were doubts as to whether we would even get this SEC heavyweight bout between the Georgia Bulldogs and Alabama Crimson Tide on Saturday. As of Thursday morning, forecasts suggest the 7:30 PM ET kickoff should be on as scheduled in Tuscaloosa, though it doesn’t promise College GameDay will be dry.
The Bulldogs and Tide may not be annual rivals in the SEC, but they make up one of the most prolific high-stakes rivalries in the current era of college football thanks to the dominance of Nick Saban, Kirby Smart and now Kalen DeBoer. The latter of the three hasn’t done nearly enough to sit at the same table as the former two just yet, but he’s well on his way. It helps to have a special talent at the quarterback position like he does in Keelon Russell.
As a program, Alabama has been Smart’s kryptonite. Saban usually took care of his business against his protege, and Deboer picked up nicely where Saban left off, winning his first two meetings with Smart before the ‘Dawgs dismantled the Tide in the SEC Championship last December. That version of Alabama had its issues; this year’s team has been more balanced and is on the short list for best team in the country no matter what the AP Poll says.
This rivalry was decided by one score in an Alabama win three straight times before Georgia got over the hump in December, but the ‘Dawgs have still only beaten the Tide twice in the last 10 meetings dating back to 2015. Both teams are elite on paper this year, so any handicap is essentially splitting hairs or flipping a coin, but it’s hard to argue that Georgia has a better body of work than the Tide. We’ve seen Alabama win twice on the road in league play, most recently demolishing a ranked Mississippi State squad last week in Starkville that looked almost unstoppable ahead of that contest, leading to a strength of schedule that currently ranks top-10 per Sagarin. Georgia is outside the top 80 in that regard, as their only road game was at Arkansas, while home wins over Oklahoma and Vanderbilt don’t seem to carry as much weight as we once thought they would.
Don’t get me wrong, Georgia has taken care of business thus far, but this will be the first time they will face a truly intimidating environment and opponent this season. Russell has a gear the Bulldogs have not seen yet, while Alabama has controlled the line of scrimmage throughout the entire season.
Through 17 home games since the start of the 2024 season, the Tide are 16-1 SU under DeBoer in Tuscaloosa, and that one loss was an instance in which the Tide simply beat themselves. Further, the Tide are 4-1 SU in revenge spots under DeBoer, with that one loss being that same Oklahoma game last year, for which the Tide later got the last laugh when they beat the Sooners in Norman during the College Football Playoff. All four of those revenge wins were by double digits.
Georgia vs Alabama prediction: Alabama Crimson Tide ML (-118) at the time of publishing. Playable to -130 or -2.
