Alabama looked like a national championship contender just a few weeks ago, but after consecutive losses against Georgia and Tennessee, the Tide are now flirting with missing the College Football Playoff entirely. After barely gaining 200 total yards in Knoxville, the Tide will return home to host Texas A&M, which has just one SEC win. The only issue is that Alabama is banged up. Ryan Coleman-Williams underwent arthroscopic surgery due to a meniscus injury and is likely to remain out for this game, while the Tide are dealing with injuries to their center, defensive tackle, one of their pieces in the secondary and others. Texas A&M’s availability is in question too, specifically at wide receiver with Mario Craver and Ashton Bethel-Roman, starting guard and on the defensive line.
The Crimson Tide had a high-flying offense early in the season, but that has died down a bit over the last couple of weeks. Texas A&M is a step down in class from Georgia and Tennessee defensively, but with a bye on deck and injuries mounting, I don’t see the Tide pushing the pace in this one. Further, the Aggies have been good at finishing drives defensively, holding opponents to just 2.83 points per non-garbage time scoring opportunity since Week 2 and having surrendered just eight red-zone touchdowns this season.
On the other side, the Aggies scored just six points at LSU and six points at Missouri, while they were held to 21 points at home against Kentucky. TAMU QB Marcel Reed has six picks and seven turnover-worthy plays to this point, and his completion percentage is the lowest among qualified quarterbacks in the SEC, so the Aggies haven’t shown much upside with the ball in their hands. The numbers confirm that – they’re outside the top 85 in PPA per play and success rate over the last six weeks, while they’re 119th in explosiveness.
I don’t trust either team on the spread at this number, and I don’t trust the Aggies much offensively to contribute to an over, so I’m going to lean to the under in this SEC showdown in T-Town on Saturday.
Texas A&M vs Alabama prediction: Under 50.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 49.5 (-110).
