When LaNorris Sellers went down in the first half against Texas A&M last week, South Carolina fans immediately thought the worst. He was helped off the field, went back into the locker room and some thought that was the last we’d see of him. Thankfully, it wasn't. The Gamecocks won – and covered – in ugly fashion thanks to him, and winning by any means necessary is the name of the game. That doesn’t change this week when the Gamecocks travel into a dreaded “trap game” under the lights in Fayetteville, Arkansas.
Sellers is probable, which means the spread of -7.5 looks a bit light on SC. Obviously, the spot plays a huge factor considering the Gamecocks have a primetime matchup with Georgia scheduled next week, which could end up being the College GameDay stop if the ‘Cocks win this one, but it sounds like Shane Beamer has a grasp on preventing this team from looking ahead. With three losses already, losing this game means next week would be essentially irrelevant.
Arkansas has been competitive at times, but the Hogs have also been flat out bad in various games. Their home game against Tennessee was much closer than people expected, and the same thing happened last week at Auburn when the Hogs lost 26-23. That said, Arkansas only scored 17 points combined on Texas A&M and Missouri, while their 14 garbage-time, fourth-quarter points against Georgia made their offensive output look somewhat respectable in a 45-17 loss. Not to mention, they only scored 10 points at Utah, also buoyed by a fourth-quarter touchdown.
The spot people will point your attention to the Tennessee game as a reason why Arkansas can compete here, but the context of that game matters – it was freshman QB George MacIntyre’s first start at the collegiate level, and on the road at that. Sellers is far from a freshman quarterback at this point. Candidly, it seems that any offense with a pulse has had its way with Arkansas, which makes sense considering the Hogs’ defense ranks 95th or worse in scoring, yards per play, PPA per play, success rate, finishing drives, havoc and standard downs success. South Carolina absolutely has a pulse offensively, with top-35 marks in efficiency, explosiveness and finishing drives over the last six weeks. Let’s also call a spade a spade, South Carolina’s SEC schedule has been more difficult than Arkansas’. The Razorbacks will be a significant step down in defensive efficiency from the last three stop-units South Carolina has played, and every subpar defense Sellers and company have faced has been scored on – shoutout Kendal Briles.
The big test is South Carolina’s defense. This unit absolutely struggles, but are we sure Arkansas can actually take advantage of that and score enough points to keep this game close? Given the spot, I’m not going to leave it up to risk, even if I think the Gamecocks win by double digits. Rather, I’m going to take the SC team total over, knowing this is a great matchup for Sellers and the Gamecock offense.
South Carolina vs Arkansas prediction: South Carolina team total over 30.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 31 (-110).
