It’s been a grueling stretch for BYU over the last month or so. The Cougars notably beat Notre Dame at home in Week 7, which was immediately followed by an overtime loss way out east in Orlando against UCF. In Week 9, BYU narrowly escaped Arizona State at home, 27-20, despite laying 17.5 points, and then last week, they lost in heart-breaking fashion in their biggest rivalry game against Utah to date. Not only did they lose 28-20, but they committed four turnovers in the process – all four interceptions by Bear Bachmeier. Now in Week 11, BYU will welcome a surging Baylor team while still licking their wounds and their backs against the wall from a postseason perspective. One more loss would likely knock BYU out, despite the win over Notre Dame.
This is just a horrible spot for the Cougars after four consecutive grueling games, with the most recent ending in heartbreak on the road against a bitter in-state rival. Following the firing of Dave Aranda, Baylor has seemingly found new life, scoring 40+ in back-to-back games while passing the eye test in the process. Believe it or not, this team is 7-2 ATS this season, and the Bears could have a path to the Big 12 title game if they win out and Texas Tech loses at Oklahoma State this week.
Since Aranda’s firing, DJ Lagway has played very good football, throwing for nearly 550 yards with six touchdowns and six big-time throws, along with zero picks and just one turnover-worthy play against UCF and Iowa State (PFF). He’s not always the most efficient down-to-down, but he’s been highly explosive, sitting top-four in the conference in big-time throws and ADOT while sitting in the top 20 nationally in passes of at least 20 yards (CFBStats). BYU is typically pretty good against the pass, but they haven’t been immune to giving up big passing plays over the last month. Moreover, BYU has left a bit to be desired defensively on passing downs and third downs, sitting outside the top 50 in passing downs PPA allowed over the last six weeks and outside the top 75 in third-down conversion rate allowed over the course of the entire year. Lagway can exploit those deficiencies.
Turnovers are a big concern here. BYU is 116th in turnover margin per game, and while you expect Bachmeier to fix the five turnover-worthy play performance he had last week, there’s no guarantee he will play clean football. With DC Joe Klanderman as the interim head coach, the Bears are flying around defensively with 10 combined sacks and 21 tackles for loss in their last two games. That’s not outside the norm, though, the Bears are top-10 in havoc generated outside of garbage time since Week 5, in addition to second nationally in sacks and tackles for loss this season (CFBStats). I’d argue these teams are trending very differently from an emotional and mental standpoint if nothing else, and I fully expect a flat effort from BYU in this spot because of it against a very competent and seemingly motivated Baylor squad. I wouldn’t be surprised with an outright upset at all, either.
Baylor vs BYU best bet: Baylor +7.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to +4.5.
