I'm willing to bet the Charlotte 49ers wish they could swap records with their namesake in the City by the Bay. While San Francisco sits at a perfect 3-0, Charlotte is 0-4 and hoping a return home this Saturday can help end its winless start. Standing in the way are the high-scoring, 3-1 Memphis Tigers, a team that could present matchup problems on both sides of the ball. To make matters worse, the forecast calls for rain and thunderstorms, with a 70% chance of wet weather.
In the event of a wet field, it would likely slow Memphis only marginally. The gap between Memphis' offense and Charlotte's has been significant through four games, with the Tigers averaging 508 yards per contest compared to the 49ers' 311. The most striking difference comes on the ground, where Charlotte is averaging just 105.3 rushing yards per game while Memphis is producing 241. Regardless of the weather, the Tigers know they have an advantage in the run game and will likely lean on it. That could lead to long, clock-eating drives and fewer possessions overall. If the rain arrives as forecasted, the ground attack may become even more prominent, taking additional time off the clock and further limiting scoring opportunities.
This Saturday in Charlotte, rain or shine, the game script appears to favor long drives, a steady dose of Memphis' run game, and Charlotte likely struggling to consistently move the ball. While the 49ers average 19.5 points per game, that figure is boosted by a 41-point outing against FCS opponent The Citadel. In their three games against FBS competition, Charlotte has scored just 37 total points, an average of 12.3 per game. If Memphis builds a two- or three-score lead by the fourth quarter, the Tigers could be content to lean on clock management and shorten the game. Whether the forecast delivers rain or not, I expect plenty of rushing attempts, fewer possessions, and a comfortable Memphis victory, with a high chance of points staying at 52 points or less.
Memphis vs Charlotte prediction: Under 52.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number to -120.
