Liberty coach Jamey Chadwell and his Flames will head to Conway, South Carolina on Thursday to play his former program, Coastal Carolina, which is where he started his FBS coaching career. Liberty comes into this non-conference matchup with a 2-1 SU record, but they are just 1-2 against the number. Meanwhile, the Chanticleers are 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS through three games with their new coach, Ryan Beard, who came over from Missouri State.
I haven’t been all that impressed with Liberty this season. While the Flames controlled a vast majority of possession in Week 1 at James Madison, they weren’t very efficient offensively, and they committed 12 penalties. In Week 2, Liberty was sleep-walking against FCS Gardner-Webb, who went into halftime with a 20-17 lead and into the final quarter with a 23-17 lead. It was a go-ahead touchdown with 2:34 left in the game that gave Liberty a lead and ultimately the win. For reference, the Flames converted just two of 12 third downs, committed 11 penalties and turned it over twice. Last week, Liberty looked the part, but Ball State is 134 in my power ratings, so how much does that actually matter?
Coastal’s body of work is arguably more impressive. West Virginia was cruising in Morgantown 24-0, but the Chants showed fight and battled back on the road to make it a respectable 31-24 defeat. Then, they did something Liberty couldn’t do; they took care of business against their FCS opponent, Fordham, 45-7. Last week, they faced their second road game of the season and eventually lost to Delaware 22-14, but that’s nothing to hang their head over. Delaware has one of the best Group of Six quarterbacks in the country, and the Chats were right there all game long. If it weren’t for a couple costly turnovers, the Chants could have won that game.
I like what I’ve seen from Coastal quarterback Deuce Bailey through two true road games, especially last week against Delaware. The freshman looked very calm and poised in the pocket, stepping up against pressure and making the right reads. When he didn’t have something, he was able to create with his legs, which is huge considering this Coastal offensive line hasn’t been very good to this point – as they sit outside the top 120 in both pass-blocking and run-blocking per PFF. Also, the Chats rank 134th in havoc allowed outside of garbage time.
Liberty may have the better record and name recognition in this matchup, but keep in mind, the Flames have a strength of schedule that ranks outside the top 165 per Sagarin – which means there are almost 30 FCS teams with a more difficult schedule than Liberty to this point. Considering that, ranking 95th in PPA per play and points per scoring opportunity, 118th in standard downs PPA and 82nd in overall success rate outside of garbage time looks quite alarming. Meanwhile, Coastal averages the same amount of yards per play as Liberty, while ranking higher in those four aforementioned metrics despite a more difficult strength of schedule.
I will say, the Coastal secondary is a glaring weakness, but Liberty is a run-heavy team that is unlikely to consistently apply pressure to that unit. The Chants’ run defense was overmatched against West Virginia, but it looked good against Delaware, as the Blue Hens averaged only three yards per carry on over 31 attempts.
It’s going to be a Teal Out in Conway, and the fans should rally around this team against one of their former coaches, creating quite a home atmosphere for the Chants. I like them to win this game outright, as I like what I’ve seen from Bailey and the Chats more against better competition than that of Chadwell’s Flames.
Liberty vs Coastal Carolina best bet: Coastal Carolina Chanticleers ML (+115) at the time of publishing. Playable to -105.
